Analysis of tweets discussing the risk of Mpox among children and young people in school (May-October 2022): a retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the number of tweets discussing the risk of Mpox to children and young people in school and (1) determine accuracy, (2) for inaccurate tweets, determine if risk was minimised or exaggerated and (3) describe the characteristics of the accounts and tweets which contained accurate versus inaccurate information. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Twitter advanced search in January 2023 of tweets spanning 18 May 2022-19 September 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Accounts labelled as: MD, DO, nurse, pharmacist, physical therapist, other healthcare provider, PhD, MPH, Ed. degree, JD, health/medicine/public policy reporter (including students or candidates) who tweeted about the risk of Mpox to children and young people in school. EXPOSURES: Tweets containing the keywords 'school' and 'mpox', 'pox', or 'monkeypox' from May to October 2022. MEASURES: (1) The total and ratio of accurate versus inaccurate tweets, the latter further subdivided by exaggerating or minimising risk, and stratified by account author credential type. (2) The total likes, retweets and follower counts by accurate versus inaccurate tweets, by month and account credentials. (3) Twitter user exposure to inaccurate versus accurate tweets was estimated. RESULTS: 262 tweets were identified. 215/262 (82%) were inaccurate and 215/215 (100%) of these exaggerated risks. 47/262 (18%) tweets were accurate. There were 163 (87%) unique authors of inaccurate tweets and 25 (13%) of accurate tweets. Among healthcare professionals, 86% (95/111) of tweets were inaccurate. Multiplying accuracy by followers and retweets, Twitter users were approximately 974× more likely to encounter inaccurate than accurate information. CONCLUSION: Credentialed Twitter users were 4.6 times more likely to tweet inaccurate than accurate messages. We also demonstrated how incorrect tweets can be quickly amplified by retweets and popular accounts. In the case of Mpox in children and young people, incorrect information always exaggerated risks.

An Analysis of Studies Pertaining to Masks in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: Characteristics and Quality of Studies through 2023.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to describe and evaluate the nature and methodology of reports and appropriateness of conclusions in The Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) pertaining to masks. Because MMWR has substantial influence on United States health policy and is not externally peer-reviewed, it is critical to understand the scientific process within the journal. Mask policies have been highly influenced by data published in the MMWR. METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional study of MMWR publications pertaining to masks through 2023. Outcomes included study design, whether the study was able to assess mask effectiveness, if results were statistically significant, if masks were concluded to be effective, if randomized evidence or conflicting data were mentioned or cited, and appropriateness of causal statements. RESULTS: There were 77 studies, all published after 2019, that met our inclusion criteria. The most common study design was observational without a comparator group: 22/77 (28.6%); 0/77 were randomized; 23/77 (29.9%) assessed mask effectiveness; 11/77 (14.3%) were statistically significant, but 58/77 (75.3%) stated that masks were effective. Of these, 41/58 (70.7%) used causal language. One mannequin study used causal language appropriately (1.3%). None cited randomized data; 1/77 (1.3%) cited conflicting evidence. CONCLUSIONS: MMWR publications pertaining to masks drew positive conclusions about mask effectiveness >75% of the time despite only 30% testing masks and <15% having statistically significant results. No studies were randomized, yet over half drew causal conclusions. The level of evidence generated was low and the conclusions were most often unsupported by the data. Our findings raise concern about the reliability of the journal for informing health policy.

Child mask mandates for COVID-19: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mask mandates for children during the COVID-19 pandemic varied in different locations. A risk-benefit analysis of this intervention has not yet been performed. In this study, we performed a systematic review to assess research on the effectiveness of mask wearing in children. METHODS: We performed database searches up to February 2023. The studies were screened by title and abstract, and included studies were further screened as full-text references. A risk-of-bias analysis was performed by two independent reviewers and adjudicated by a third reviewer. RESULTS: We screened 597 studies and included 22 in the final analysis. There were no randomised controlled trials in children assessing the benefits of mask wearing to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infection or transmission. The six observational studies reporting an association between child masking and lower infection rate or antibody seropositivity had critical (n=5) or serious (n=1) risk of bias; all six were potentially confounded by important differences between masked and unmasked groups and two were shown to have non-significant results when reanalysed. Sixteen other observational studies found no association between mask wearing and infection or transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world effectiveness of child mask mandates against SARS-CoV-2 transmission or infection has not been demonstrated with high-quality evidence. The current body of scientific data does not support masking children for protection against COVID-19.

Rapid antigen testing for COVID-19: Decreasing diagnostic reliability, potential detrimental effects and a lack of evidence to support continued public funding of community-based testing.

Rapid antigen testing continues to be broadly recommended across the world for the prevention of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We explore existing recommendations in the United States, evidence of decreasing diagnostic reliability of individual tests and potential benefits and harms of non-targeted testing. Recent research has found multiple commonly-used rapid antigen tests to now have diagnostic sensitivities below 30%, with sensitivities at or near 0% the first 48 hours of infection, using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test positivity as the gold standard. Reliance on tests with low sensitivity could paradoxically increase transmission risk through false assurance. Furthermore, widespread testing has substantial direct and indirect costs, while its effectiveness for diminishing COVID-19 disease burden or improving overall community health is unclear. Because benefit has not been demonstrated with high-quality evidence, we argue against 1. The continued recommendations for and 2. Public funding of widespread community-based rapid antigen testing.

Does equipoise exist for masking children for COVID-19?

Clinical equipoise is characterized by genuine uncertainty within the medical community about the effectiveness of a medical intervention. Its existence is often deemed necessary for clinical trials and signals a need for higher quality evidence, most often with randomized controlled trials, before the intervention can be considered effective. A leading official of the United States' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director, when testifying before Congress in February of 2023, indicated there was no need for randomized controlled trials of masking because, owing to overwhelming evidence of benefit, there was no longer equipoise about masking children for COVID-19. We disagree with this statement and outline the reasons why in this piece. We review the concept of clinical equipoise specifically using the example of child masking. We list reasons equipoise still exists for masking children, including a lack of consensus among experts, contradictory medical evidence and recent and ongoing randomized efforts. Finally, we differentiate between clinical equipoise and ethical appropriateness. Despite ongoing equipoise about masking children, we outline why, owing to lack of evidence of net benefit, recommending this intervention does not currently appear to be medically ethical.

Lack of correlation between school mask mandates and paediatric COVID-19 cases in a large cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To expand upon an observational study published by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) showing an association between school mask mandates and lower pediatric COVID-19 cases. We examine whether this association persists in a larger, nationally representative dataset over a longer period. METHOD: We replicated the CDC study and extended it to more districts and a longer period, employing seven times as much data. We examined the relationship between mask mandates and per-capita pediatric cases, using multiple regression to control for observed differences. RESULTS: We successfully replicated the original result using 565 counties; non-masking counties had around 30 additional daily cases per 100,000 children after two weeks of schools reopening. However, after nine weeks, cases per 100,000 were 18.3 in counties with mandates compared to 15.8 in those without them (p = 0.12). In a larger sample of 1832 counties, between weeks 2 and 9, cases per 100,000 fell by 38.2 and 37.9 in counties with and without mask requirements, respectively (p = 0.93). CONCLUSIONS: The association between school mask mandates and cases did not persist in the extended sample. Observational studies of interventions are prone to multiple biases and provide insufficient evidence for recommending mask mandates.

COVID-19 Surveillance Testing in Secondary Schools: Findings and Barriers to Implementation.

PROBLEM CONSIDERED: K-12 schools have shown minimal spread of COVID-19 when mitigation measures are employed. This study sought to determine baseline asymptomatic COVID-19 rates in secondary schools as students returned to full-time in-person learning with universal masking in place and to evaluate the logistical obstacles of implementing surveillance testing. METHODS: An observational cohort study lasting 11 weeks during spring 2021 included 2,288 students and staff in Wood County, Wisconsin. SARS-CoV-2 nasal polymerase chain reaction testing was done on consenting students and staff to determine baseline disease burden. Teacher surveys collected data on student masking compliance and classroom distancing. Information about percent positivity, secondary transmission, quarantine and distancing policies, screening participation, costs, and volunteer hour requirements were obtained. Modified quarantine for fully masked in-classroom exposures was evaluated. RESULTS: Percent positivity averaged 3.0% (0%-16.2% weekly) among students and 1.72% (0%-6.9% weekly) among staff. Two cases of secondary transmission were suspected out of 163 individuals quarantined. An average of 15.6% of the school population consented to participate each week. Minimum classroom distance between students ranged from 2.7 to 5.5 feet. Student masking compliance was greater than 87%. The cost of the program was $106,400 and required approximately 300 volunteer hours. The modified quarantine policy, where students were allowed to continue to attend in-person school after exposure to a case of COVID-19 if the infected and exposed parties were masking, did not result in additional transmission. CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of relatively high student masking compliance and limited distance between students, weekly secondary school screening of students and staff in an area of high community disease spread was found to be low yield, costly, and burdensome for the school district. Surveillance participation was low. A modified quarantine policy was not associated with increased in-school transmission. School funding may be better spent on targeted testing or other school expenses, especially with increasing vaccination rates.

BNT162b2 Vaccine-Associated Myo/Pericarditis in Adolescents: A Stratified Risk-Benefit Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Male patients ages 12-17 years have an elevated risk of mRNA vaccination-associated myo/pericarditis. A risk-benefit analysis of first and second doses of mRNA vaccination in adolescent boys by health status and history of SARS-CoV-2 infection has not been performed. METHODS: Using the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), we identified BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] myo/pericarditis occurrence according to CDC criteria. Main outcomes were as follows: 1) post-vaccination myo/pericarditis crude incidence in adolescents aged 12-15 and 16-17; and 2) two risk-benefit analyses by age, sex, comorbidity, variant and history of infection. RESULTS: Cases of myo/pericarditis (n = 253) included 129 after dose 1 and 124 after dose 2; 86.9% were hospitalized. Incidence per million after dose two in male patients aged 12-15 and 16-17 was 162.2 and 93.0, respectively. Weighing post-vaccination myo/pericarditis against COVID-19 hospitalization during delta, our risk-benefit analysis suggests that among 12-17-year-olds, two-dose vaccination was uniformly favourable only in nonimmune girls with a comorbidity. In boys with prior infection and no comorbidities, even one dose carried more risk than benefit according to international estimates. In the setting of omicron, one dose may be protective in nonimmune children, but dose two does not appear to confer additional benefit at a population level. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings strongly support individualized paediatric COVID-19 vaccination strategies which weigh protection against severe disease vs. risks of vaccine-associated myo/pericarditis. Research is needed into the nature and implications of this adverse effect as well as immunization strategies which reduce harms in this overall low-risk cohort.

COVID-19 vaccine boosters for young adults: a risk benefit assessment and ethical analysis of mandate policies at universities.

In 2022, students at North American universities with third-dose COVID-19 vaccine mandates risk disenrolment if unvaccinated. To assess the appropriateness of booster mandates in this age group, we combine empirical risk-benefit assessment and ethical analysis. To prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation over a 6-month period, we estimate that 31 207-42 836 young adults aged 18-29 years must receive a third mRNA vaccine. Booster mandates in young adults are expected to cause a net harm: per COVID-19 hospitalisation prevented, we anticipate at least 18.5 serious adverse events from mRNA vaccines, including 1.5-4.6 booster-associated myopericarditis cases in males (typically requiring hospitalisation). We also anticipate 1430-4626 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity interfering with daily activities (although typically not requiring hospitalisation). University booster mandates are unethical because they: (1) are not based on an updated (Omicron era) stratified risk-benefit assessment for this age group; (2) may result in a net harm to healthy young adults; (3) are not proportionate: expected harms are not outweighed by public health benefits given modest and transient effectiveness of vaccines against transmission; (4) violate the reciprocity principle because serious vaccine-related harms are not reliably compensated due to gaps in vaccine injury schemes; and (5) may result in wider social harms. We consider counterarguments including efforts to increase safety on campus but find these are fraught with limitations and little scientific support. Finally, we discuss the policy relevance of our analysis for primary series COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

Quarantine Elimination for K-12 Students With Mask-on-Mask Exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVES: With layered mitigation strategies, there are low rates of secondary transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; therefore, quarantine after close-contact exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) setting further disrupts in-person learning with uncertain benefit. We explored the impact of eliminating quarantine for students with mask-on-mask exposures to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on associated secondary transmission in schools. METHODS: This observational study was conducted in a large K-12 public school district in Omaha, Nebraska (August 1, 2020, to March 15, 2021). We assessed primary and secondary COVID-19 infections in teachers and staff, frequency of quarantine for students and staff, and the impact of eliminating quarantine on secondary transmission in mask-on-mask exposure settings. RESULTS: A total of 18 632 and 19 604 students and 2855 staff attended in-person learning in the fall and spring semesters, respectively; 1856 primary infections were among students and staff. Despite 3947 student quarantines in the fall and 1689 student quarantines in the first 10 weeks of spring semester instruction, there were only 2 cases of secondary transmission. A local policy change removed quarantine requirements for students with mask-on-mask exposure to COVID-19. Required quarantines in the spring semester reduced by 41% per primary infection compared with the fall; no student who qualified to avoid quarantine developed a secondary infection. CONCLUSIONS: School-based COVID-19 transmission was exceptionally low in this large K-12 Nebraska school district. Elimination of student quarantine after masked exposure to COVID-19 within school was not associated with secondary transmission. Elimination of unnecessary quarantine elimination may help maximize in-person learning in the 2021-2022 school year.

Youth ice hockey COVID-19 protocols and prevention of sport-related transmission.

OBJECTIVES: This observational study evaluated the impact of return-to-play protocols to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a youth ice hockey programme in Virginia Beach, Virginia. METHODS: Following an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in November 2020, a COVID-19 Response Team evaluated the epidemiological data to identify transmission dynamics and develop enhanced protocols to prevent transmission. During the subsequent 18-week study period, incident cases were investigated to identify the likely transmission source; testing, quarantine and isolation recommendations were provided to families in accordance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. RESULTS: Simple but stringent protocols were implemented among 148 youth ice hockey players ages 6-18. Players were required to arrive at the rink in full gear; locker rooms were closed, building entry was limited to one parent per player, and masks were required at all times except for players on the ice. Following implementation of the enhanced protocols, more than 500 practices and games were completed with at least 15 858 athlete-hours of exposure and no within-programme COVID-19 transmission was detected despite high community incidence and sporadic household exposures. CONCLUSION: This study suggests indoor youth sports can operate safely with appropriate protocols in place, even within communities of high COVID-19 transmission, even when athletes are not yet vaccinated or wearing masks during play. Transmission appears to be more likely in congested indoor areas involving adults than on the ice during play. Protocols should be developed in collaboration with programme participants. Strong collaboration in the interest of youth sports can motivate adoption of protocols which prevent within-team transmission.

Prevalence of Female and Male Athlete Triad Risk Factors in Ultramarathon Runners.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the prevalence of male and female athlete triad risk factors in ultramarathon runners and explore associations between sex hormones and bone mineral density (BMD). DESIGN: Multiyear cross-sectional study. SETTING: One hundred-mile ultramarathon. PARTICIPANTS: Competing runners were recruited in 2018 and 2019. ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS: Participants completed a survey assessing eating behaviors, menstrual history, and injury history; dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry for BMD; and laboratory evaluation of sex hormones, vitamin D, and ferritin (2019 cohort only). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: A Triad Cumulative Risk Assessment Score was calculated for each participant. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-three runners participated (83 males and 40 females, mean age 46.2 and 41.8 years, respectively). 44.5% of men and 62.5% of women had elevated risk for disordered eating. 37.5% of women reported a history of bone stress injury (BSI) and 16.7% had BMD Z scores <-1.0. 20.5% of men had a history of BSI and 30.1% had Z-scores <-1.0. Low body mass index (BMI) (<18.5 kg/m 2 ) was seen in 15% of women and no men. The Triad Cumulative Risk Assessment classified 61.1% of women and 29.2% of men as moderate risk and 5.6% of both men and women as high risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to measure BMD in both male and female ultramarathon runners. Our male population had a higher prevalence of low BMD than the general population; females were more likely to report history of BSI. Risk of disordered eating was elevated among our participants but was not associated with either low BMD or low BMI.

COVID-19 Cases and Transmission in 17 K-12 Schools - Wood County, Wisconsin, August 31-November 29, 2020.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted in-person learning in the United States, with approximately one half of all students receiving online-only instruction since March 2020.* Discontinuation of in-person schooling can result in many hardships (1) and disproportionately affects families of lower socioeconomic status (2). Current evidence suggests that transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) schools might not significantly contribute to COVID-19 spread nationwide (3). During August 31-November 29, 2020, COVID-19 cases, spread, and compliance with mask use were investigated among 4,876 students and 654 staff members who participated in in-person learning in 17 K-12 schools in rural Wisconsin. School-attributable COVID-19 case rates were compared with rates in the surrounding community. School administration and public health officials provided information on COVID-19 cases within schools. During the study period, widespread community transmission was observed, with 7%-40% of COVID-19 tests having positive results. Masking was required for all students and staff members at all schools, and rate of reported student mask-wearing was high (>92%). COVID-19 case rates among students and staff members were lower (191 cases among 5,530 persons, or 3,453 cases per 100,000) than were those in the county overall (5,466 per 100,000). Among the 191 cases identified in students and staff members, one in 20 cases among students was linked to in-school transmission; no infections among staff members were found to have been acquired at school. These findings suggest that, with proper mitigation strategies, K-12 schools might be capable of opening for in-person learning with minimal in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2.